For those who are going back and forth on what they would do in next month's NBA draft, keep in mind that you would have to go back to the 1997-98 season to find an NBA champion that didn't have a dominant center. Winning championships is what it's all about, right?

If that's what you believe, then the choice for No.1 isn't difficult - Ohio State 7-footer Greg Oden.

Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan are both three-time MVPs in the NBA Finals. Oden, 19, generally regarded as the best big man to come into the league since Duncan in 1997, stands to be in that category sooner rather than later.

That's why the team picking No.1 better not do something stupid and pass on a guy who is projected to be a franchise-changing center within his first couple of years.

And this especially means the Celtics, who have made some baffling draft day moves in recent years.

But whether it's Memphis, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta or anybody who might have the pick, they'll hear that same refrain - "Don't make a mistake" - from the time they find out tonight during the draft lottery until the draft on June 28.

Oden's fellow college one-and-doner, Kevin Durant, was a 6-9 offensive monster at the wing-forward position for Rick Barnes' Texas Longhorns. The first freshman to be The Associated Press player of the year, Durant, 18, is certainly worthy of being the No.1 pick.

He's a sweet player, but there are a lot more Kevin Durants in the NBA than there are Greg Odens. There are so many 6-8, 6-9 guys in the league that can do the things Durant does. It may turn out that he does those things better than most (and here's a bet that he will), but there's just too much evidence to suggest that going with the center, if the upside is there, is the way to go in winning titles.

And that's why the way to go is with G.O. at No.1. He's ready now.

"I always go back to the fact the big centers don't come along very often in the draft," said an Eastern Conference scout requesting anonymity. "Every 10 years or so, you get an Oden-type player, and that's what drives most people when they're preparing for the draft. Most general managers, or directors of player personnel or scouts, they keep coming back to, `How often is a guy like this going to come along and are we going to pass on this opportunity if we've got a chance to take him at No.1?'

"And then you look at the Michael Jordan situation when he was drafted third and he turned out to be the best player ever. Durant has some of those kinds of skills. He's special. Durant is very, very special. He's not just another player. There are certain guys that just hit you, you know? He's got it. You just can't go wrong either way, but still there's the nagging thing with the centers: How often are you going to get a center who can actually influence a game like Oden?"

Of course, the top pick in the Jordan draft in 1984 didn't turn out too bad. Hakeem Olajuwon, a 7 footer, won two NBA titles and is certain to be voted into the Basketball Hall of Fame when he becomes eligible next year.

NBA honchos are terrified of passing on the next great center who can dominate a game, like Oden did in his one college season. He blocked 3.3 shots a game and altered many more to go along with 15.7 points and 9.6 boards.

Teams' dreams of having that great big man are based on NBA history: Bill Russell and the 11 titles he won; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's six titles, Shaq's four; Olajuwon's and Chamberlain's two. Bill Walton also won two, one with the Trail Blazers and one coming off the bench for the Celtics in 1986.

Oden has to shore up his offense a bit, but many NBA people say he will still be the first center to command attention with his all-around skills in the post since the Admiral, David Robinson.

"Oden is a big-time center," a Western Conference scout said. "And big-time centers win in this league. He's going to be one of those guys, not to put the other guy down because he's going to be a nice player, too, but you just know Oden is going to be great."

Many have been singing that same song since Oden's junior year at Lawrence North High in Indianapolis, and the kid didn't disappoint once he got to Ohio State, where he led his team to the NCAA final and dropped 25 points and 12 rebounds in the loss to two-time champion Florida.

Did we mention the injury to his right wrist that delayed the start of his freshman season? Despite the criticism of his offense, Oden still shot 61.7 percent. Yes, he has to work on his post moves and jump shot (which actually isn't bad from 10 to 12 feet), but the skills are there. You know it. NBA people know it, and whoever gets him will be pleased to bring those skills out.

In addition to being long and strong, Oden can leap out of the gym. His game is so advanced, especially on defense, that the team that takes him should be building around a young man who can take them to multiple titles.

All that team has to do is not make the mistake of passing on him at No.1 - unless winning championships isn't that important.

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